Here's a new tack. Who do *think* would win if the election was held today?

[Colleen]

We've talked about who we want to win and who we don't want to win ~ or our indecision on the matter. Set aside for a moment what you want to see happen and vote based on what you think would be reality if the election was held today. For the sake of simplicity and realism, I'm limiting this poll to the two major party tickets.

[abbeyej]

Well, the polls seem to indicate that McCain is slightly ahead -- and that "slightly" falls within the margin of error of those same polls.

My only fear is that it could be as close (and challenging to call) as the last two elections. I think we need this one to be a big enough difference that no one can question it (either way).

[Karen in CO]

You need 270 to win. Current polls, show Obama has 250 and McCain 237.

check out the electoral maps (http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard;_ylt=AmlCkKRo0CWABT_zybxPyGGM5QcF).

[Mama Lynx]

Well, the polls seem to indicate that McCain is slightly ahead -- and that "slightly" falls within the margin of error of those same polls.

My only fear is that it could be as close (and challenging to call) as the last two elections. I think we need this one to be a big enough difference that no one can question it (either way).

Oh, yeah. Whoever is elected, I so hope it is not close.

[Karen in CO]

Oh, yeah. Whoever is elected, I so hope it is not close.

But I am afraid it will be. It seems that is the way of politics for now. Maybe close election reflect that as a nation we are not as different from each other as we perceive. It may also reflect that our candidates aren't as different from each other as we perceive.

[Mama Lynx]

But I am afraid it will be. It seems that is the way of politics for now. Maybe close election reflect that as a nation we are not as different from each other as we perceive. It may also reflect that our candidates aren't as different from each other as we perceive.

I agree with you, and I think that's likely the case.

However, I am so sick of the divisive rhetoric on both sides. And if it's close, whichever side loses will accuse the other of stealing the election. I'm sick of that, too.

[JudoMom]

But I am afraid it will be. It seems that is the way of politics for now. Maybe close election reflect that as a nation we are not as different from each other as we perceive. It may also reflect that our candidates aren't as different from each other as we perceive.

I don't know that that's true. I think we all recognize the same problems, but when it comes to actually fixing them we tend to be very opposite on how to accomplish that. That's why people are so passionate that their candidate is the right one.

[True Blue]

You need 270 to win. Current polls, show Obama has 250 and McCain 237.

check out the electoral maps (http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard;_ylt=AmlCkKRo0CWABT_zybxPyGGM5QcF).

I wish it was the popular vote.

[8FillTheHeart]

I don't know that that's true. I think we all recognize the same problems, but when it comes to actually fixing them we tend to be very opposite on how to accomplish that. That's why people are so passionate that their candidate is the right one.

This is my perspective as well. The last several elections have been very close. I think it reflects distinctive divisions in ideology.....and those differences are significant.

I also agree that both parties recognize the exact same problems. I don't think one party sees them and the other is unrealistic and ignores them. I think it boils down to the principles that they see as the means for fixing the problems and what the appropriate solution is.

I think the more the elections become marginal victories, the more rancorous the rhetoric becomes.

[Jenny in Atl]

I wish it was the popular vote.

Mob rule... no.... :willy_nilly::willy_nilly:

[Mrs Mungo]

You need 270 to win. Current polls, show Obama has 250 and McCain 237.

check out the electoral maps (http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard;_ylt=AmlCkKRo0CWABT_zybxPyGGM5QcF).

Why are they not counting Hawaii or Delaware for anyone? Those are guaranteed to go to Obama.

Here's a different map, I think this one is a little better.

http://www.270towin.com/ (hubby is napping :D)

[Michelle in MO]

Mob rule... no.... :willy_nilly::willy_nilly:

traditionalist; I think our Constitution was written with just these situations in mind! I'm all for the electoral college!

[Mom to Aly]

I think, at this point, everyone here is putting that the candidate they like is going to win. I, personally, am so much more confident since McCain made his choice of running mate public, I can't stop from grinning--I think Obama's victory is that much easier now!

[8FillTheHeart]

Interesting.....that map has FL as undecided.

[kokotg]

There's also this site:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

the webmaster is biased, but the polls he uses are not. It's interesting, because it has a feature you can click on to compare the way the race looks now to the Kerry/Bush race on the same day 4 years ago.

[Elaine]

I think, at this point, everyone here is putting that the candidate they like is going to win. I, personally, am so much more confident since McCain made his choice of running mate public, I can't stop from grinning--I think Obama's victory is that much easier now!

Do you expect us to pick the candidate we don't want?


I think Palin sealed McCain's victory.

[Karen in CO]

I like that map.

How did I not know that in case of an electoral tie, the newly elected House would pick the Pres. And the Senate would pick the Veep. Now that would be a controversial election. I think it would be cool to be able to vote for a President and vote separately for Vice-President.

[Erica in PA]

I think, at this point, everyone here is putting that the candidate they like is going to win. I, personally, am so much more confident since McCain made his choice of running mate public, I can't stop from grinning--I think Obama's victory is that much easier now!

That's interesting, because I felt exactly the same way in reverse when Obama picked Biden... :tongue_smilie:

My *perception* is that Republicans as a group seem to be much more excited about their VP pick than the Democrats seemed to be about theirs. I could be mistaken, but from what I've seen and read, that's the way it's coming across.

Erica

[SnowWhite]

I'm pessimistic about this election. I answered the poll the reverse of what I would hope for. I also think it will be very close and the losing side will feel cheated, again.:bored::bored:

[Mrs Mungo]

Interesting.....that map has FL as undecided.

Florida is considered a battleground state, most maps and polls have Florida as undecided.

[8FillTheHeart]

Well, here is a different map, Rove's. His map is different than both of the other 2. Essentially, no one really knows except for the states that have been blue or red for the last umpteen elections. Until it gets closer to Nov......nothing really matters. As I say to my kids, the only poll that matters is the one in Nov. ;)

http://rove.com/election

[Jugglin'5]

That's interesting, because I felt exactly the same way in reverse when Obama picked Biden... :tongue_smilie:

My *perception* is that Republicans as a group seem to be much more excited about their VP pick than the Democrats seemed to be about theirs. I could be mistaken, but from what I've seen and read, that's the way it's coming across.

Erica

Yeah, but to be fair, the Democrats seem to be more excited about their actual candidate for president.:D

[kokotg]

My *perception* is that Republicans as a group seem to be much more excited about their VP pick than the Democrats seemed to be about theirs. I could be mistaken, but from what I've seen and read, that's the way it's coming across.

Erica

I think Republicans are, for the most part. But registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by big margins this year, and I don't think (and the first polls don't show) that the choice will do anything much to sway moderates and independents. I think McCain had to choose between reassuring social conservatives and appealing to moderates. He made his choice, and it will certainly be interesting to see how it plays out.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-08-30-palin-poll_N.htm

Of those who say the running mates will make a difference, 18% say Palin makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 11% less likely. That net-positive impact of 7 points is similar to Biden's: 14% said his pick made them more likely to vote for Obama, 7% less likely.

It's early yet, though.

[Jill, OK]

However, I am so sick of the divisive rhetoric on both sides. And if it's close, whichever side loses will accuse the other of stealing the election. I'm sick of that, too.

...you're singing my song?

:tongue_smilie:

[Erica in PA]

Yeah, but to be fair, the Democrats seem to be more excited about their actual candidate for president.:D

Yes, I have to agree with you there! :tongue_smilie:

Erica

[WTMindy]

You need 270 to win. Current polls, show Obama has 250 and McCain 237.

check out the electoral maps (http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard;_ylt=AmlCkKRo0CWABT_zybxPyGGM5QcF).

This is my reason for my answer also, although I will not be voting for him.

[Colleen]

Do you expect us to pick the candidate we don't want?

Yes, that's what I expect and I explained that in my initial post. Wanting someone to win and thinking they actually will win are two different things. I assume we all have times when we support a candidate (Presidential or otherwise) despite the fact that we aren't assured of his or her victory.

[Colleen]

Yes, electoral votes are ultimately what matter; good point. I tend to forget that since I'd prefer a true democracy.

[Peek a Boo]

Yes, electoral votes are ultimately what matter; good point. I tend to forget that since I'd prefer a true democracy.

yeah ---i'm betting Obama will win, even tho I'll be voting third party.

and don't forget that not all electoral votes are "secure" --each state has different laws on how to handle electors that don't stick to the "pledged" vote. Some don't hold the electors to the popular vote.