Peak Oil. I'm learning about this and it is sobering...

[Tracy in Ky]

This really makes me stop and think.

Here is a link to the book I am currently reading called "The Long Emergency"

http://http://www.amazon.com/Long-Emergency-Converging-Catastrophes-Twenty-First/dp/0802142494/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1210684651&sr=8-1

And here is a link to a webpage that sums a lot of it up:

http://http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

:blink:

[NicksMama-Zack's Mama Too]

This topic, along with the Demise of the Dollar book he's reading, has made the man more depressed and angry than ever. I've even second-guessed our choice to have our children (too late now!). It's not hard to fathom another "dark ages" in our country's future.

:001_unsure:

K

[Virginia Dawn]

For some reason the links don't work for me.

[Tracy in Ky]

I'm not sure why the links are stuck. Here are the actual urls:

http://www.amazon.com/Long-Emergency-Converging-Catastrophes-Twenty-First/dp/0802142494/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1210684651&sr=8-1

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I think that should do it.

[SFP]

Tracy, you may be interested in reading Kunstler's World Made By Hand--a fictionalized account of what life may be like after the long emergency's over.

[Tracy in Ky]

Tracy, you may be interested in reading Kunstler's World Made By Hand--a fictionalized account of what life may be like after the long emergency's over.

I would like to read this! I'll see if the library has it. :)

[jmgconner]

Very interesting, especially since gas prices jumped 12 cents yesterday to $3.71 here. Thanks for the link.

[Julpost]

What about all of the alternative energy innovations out there?

I did find a video on google called "Crude Awakening"....very interesting!!

[Tracy in Ky]

What about all of the alternative energy innovations out there?

I did find a video on google called "Crude Awakening"....very interesting!!


The author of the book goes through each of the alternative energy sources and basically specifies why they will not work. For example, wind energy is good, but how will we manufacture, build, and erect, and repair the windmills when the oil is gone? Oil is the basis for the building materials, the transport, the lifting, and the repair.

That is just one example of many.

He discusses hydrogen, wind, solar, water, methane, dark matter, natural gas, coal, etc.

It is just amazing. It is scary, but at the same time it is eye-opening. I really recommend that others read the book.

Blessings,
Tracy

[MJN]

happens?

[Tracy in Ky]

happens?

Sadly, yes. We suffer hardship, starvation, illness, and a severe dying back of the population.

Meanwhile, a return to local production and community will have to develop. The global economy will be finished. People will need land and agricultual skills to go with it. However, most of that knowledge is lost. Just a few people have that knowledge currently.

Suburbia, he says, will become the ghettos.

My, I'm Miss Sunshine today aren't I?:thumbdown:

[amy g.]

We are trying to produce as much of our own food as possible.

I'm starting to hear about livestock being stolen, and gardens being raided.

I usually take all of the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk with a grain of salt, but now I want to be prepared.

I think I'm going to ask for a shotgun for Christmas.

[Tracy in Ky]

I'm starting to hear about livestock being stolen, and gardens being raided.



Goodness. Where did you hear about that?

[amy g.]

Some of my neighbors in my goat club have had goats stolen. On another board I visit, one poster had a pig stolen, another, all of his chickens.

One person had their stolen goat returned when they spread around town the news that they would be prosecuting the thieves.

[Julpost]

Some of my neighbors in my goat club have had goats stolen. On another board I visit, one poster had a pig stolen, another, all of his chickens.

One person had their stolen goat returned when they spread around town the news that they would be prosecuting the thieves.

Are you KIDDING me????!!!! (I know you're not, I'm just in shock!)

Well, for the first time in years, I am putting in a garden, getting chickens for eggs, and learning how to not be so dependent on Costco!

So, what is the proposed time frame for this disaster? Approximately? A year, a decade??

My sister and I have been talking about this, having food stored away, etc. I guess there is only so much one can do.

[cornopean]

The author of the book goes through each of the alternative energy sources and basically specifies why they will not work. For example, wind energy is good, but how will we manufacture, build, and erect, and repair the windmills when the oil is gone?
Ok....I would respectfully submit my opinion that this website and the book are a lot of hooey. Are there any leading economists or thinkers who have confirmed these theories? and do notice all the stuff for sale in the sidebar. interesting how the information in the column sorta gets one to want the stuff they selling in the sidebar. :001_smile::001_smile:
I think I will now go make plans with my wife to have five more kids...or six.

[proudmamma]

I think that the economic collapse of this country is a planned event by the "global elites" who want a one world government. They want to merge us with Mexica and Canada into the North American Union and replace our currency with the Amero...

[Jennay]

wow...I followed the second link and must say I was oerwhelmed with the information.

Even if it doesn't get as dire as the site predicted, I realized how unprepared I am for any sort of emergency - food supplies, camping gear, etc.

I have a lot to do....and that's just for basic, common sense scenarios and not "the end of the world as we know it" stuff.

Sigh....I was having a pretty relaxed day. Not anymore.

[Virginia Dawn]

Ok....I would respectfully submit my opinion that this website and the book are a lot of hooey. Are there any leading economists or thinkers who have confirmed these theories? and do notice all the stuff for sale in the sidebar. interesting how the information in the column sorta gets one to want the stuff they selling in the sidebar. :001_smile::001_smile:
I think I will now go make plans with my wife to have five more kids...or six.


I'm not planning on having more children, but I tend to agree with you. It's like "deja vu all over again." We've heard this tune before.

There is still nuclear power, hydroelectric, wind, chemical, etc. And I don't think we are "running out of oil" any time soon. At least not until 2012. ;)

The problems with oil today are not totally based on supply. Most of it is based on the greed of speculators, government regulations and other government activities which shall not be named, and inflation of the dollar by printing money that has no value behind it.

Oh, I don't doubt that many people will be hit terribly hard, especially the poor and landless. But I don't see a return to any kind of "dark ages." Not with the knowledge and skills of the last 2 centuries behind us.

[Margaret in GA]

I saw Crude Awakening about a year ago and it changed my life. I do think that the movie does manipulate some statistics and selectively interviews people, however, it made me realize some sobering realities regarding oil. One: it is so cheap (even now) that we could never replace it entirely with alternatives and maintain our current lifestyles. Two: there is only so much oil. When it is gone, it is gone. Three: We are no longer the sole gas hogs-- other countries are exceeding us in usage.

Having said that, technology is so advanced now that they can find oil in places they never expected to find it and they can now extract it from places they never thought they could extract it from. The problem is, however, that oil is finite. There will never be enough for our current and *rising* demand. Someday it will run out. That is one reason I am such a fan of hybrids and flex-fuel cars. Let's begin investing in alternative fuels, not just talking about it. Let's drive that market (no pun intended).

One more thing: This is one of the major reasons I am against drilling in ANWR. To me, that is our emergency oil. If we really *need* it (I'm thinking of WWIII here), it's there.

Margaret

[Tracy in Ky]

Having said that, technology is so advanced now that they can find oil in places they never expected to find it and they can now extract it from places they never thought they could extract it from.
Margaret

Based on what I have read, though, after peak we will have used most of the oil that is best and easiest to get. Eventually, even though there may be more oil there, it will require so much oil to actually get it, that it will be madness to do it, ie. when it takes two barrels of oil to get one barrel out, we stop getting it out.

The lesser quality oil may also need so much oil energy to refine it, that it is useless to get it out also.

And then of course, there are all the other nations wanting the oil that is left--including China who has become industrialized at the time when the oil is running out. Imagine the wars over the remaining oil! Of course wars require oil:001_huh:

I think the oil in Alaska, once we got it out, would service the US for maybe one year, based on what I remember reading.

The whole thing makes my head spin. And makes me want to read a gardening book or an animal husbandry book! ha.

Spreading more cheer :blink:
Tracy

[K-FL]

Just to give another side of the story: not everyone (scientist) agree oil is finite. ". . .the belief that oil is a fossil fuel and a finite resource. On the contrary, this book presents authoritative research, currently known mostly in the scientific community, that oil is not a product of decaying dinosaurs and prehistoric forests. Rather, it is a natural product of the earth."

http://www.amazon.com/Black-Gold-Stranglehold-Jerome-Corsi/dp/1581824890

http://www.specialguests.com/guests/viewnews.cgi?id=EEFkyZEFkyzLyOmioy&tmpl=default

[Kathy in MD]

Just to give another side of the story: not everyone (scientist) agree oil is finite. ". . .the belief that oil is a fossil fuel and a finite resource. On the contrary, this book presents authoritative research, currently known mostly in the scientific community, that oil is not a product of decaying dinosaurs and prehistoric forests. Rather, it is a natural product of the earth."

http://www.amazon.com/Black-Gold-Stranglehold-Jerome-Corsi/dp/1581824890

http://www.specialguests.com/guests/viewnews.cgi?id=EEFkyZEFkyzLyOmioy&tmpl=default

I have heard of ONE scientist who believes that oil is continually being manufactured deep within the Earth. I heard about this scientist from a comment made by a second scientist several years ago. The 2nd scientist said the first scientist has gone out on limbs before and was eventually proven correct, but the 2nd scientist was still highly skeptical that the this idea has any merit.

I noticed that the book you mention is NOT written by a scientist or even a scientific journalist. Instead one of the authors is a political scientist, and I forget what the other one's background is. Given the highly speculative nature of the oil proposal, I wonder how well researched this book is. Did the authors interview scientists who don't accept this idea? Did they brush off evidence that would disprove it? I haven't read the book, but I would read it with a highly skeptical viewpoint.

I'd more readily read a book written by the scientist to first propose this idea, because reputable scientists generally don't publish general trade books like this unless they're somewhat confident of their theories.

[proudmamma]

Agreeing with K-FL. There has been cases where old oil wells have filled up again.

[Targhee]

To begin, I'd like to say I'm not giving credence to this theory of Peak Oil. But, because it takes a long time to turn a big ship, if you want change in the world around you sometimes you bite your tongue when the shock-and-awe theories come out (like "An Inconvenient Truth") because you know it will help move people in the right direction.

it ["Crude Awekening"] made me realize some sobering realities regarding oil. One: it is so cheap (even now) that we could never replace it entirely with alternatives and maintain our current lifestyles. That's just it - we probably can't maintain our current lifestyles. But that isn't all necessarily bad. We're a pretty consumptive people. We waste a lot. If we could pare down the waste we wouldn't have to sacrifice so much of necessity, or even slight luxury. Imagine how much energy and raw materials we would save if we stopped giving away toasters with checking accounts, crappy toys with drive through meals, promotional sun glasses with credit card applications (this is the cusp of a related topic that I won't delve into now), favor bags at birthday parties, etc. (And we'd have to stop expecting free crap all the time, too). This is just one minor change that really wouldn't hurt the way we lived. I honestly think it would help. My point is, we can change the way we consume and the way we think and not just pace and worry about a catastrophic collapse of the world around us.

Two: there is only so much oil. When it is gone, it is gone.
Probably. More accurately we are using it much faster than the earth can replace it. Think of it more like trees, only the cycle of renewal is exponentially longer.

Three: We are no longer the sole gas hogs-- other countries are exceeding us in usage.
Uh, I don't know about exceeding us on a per capita basis. Sure, China and India have increased oil consumption as their burgeoning middle classes have benefited from their economic growth, but look at the population base. Besides, doesn't that just send a message that we all should be making efforts to live sustainably?

I see lots of things wrong with oil as the life-blood of our progress and prosperity. But I see so much good in people, and so much ingenuity, and so much potential. Who says we can't make a difference? I pity them. (about as much as I pity the ones who believe we don't need to change).

[Margaret in GA]

" That's just it - we probably can't maintain our current lifestyles. But that isn't all necessarily bad. "

Agreed. I just mean to say that it will be a huge change for us all- and our economy and that's a little scary to imagine how we will transport everything from food to building materials. (note: I think a return to local food is a GOOD thing, but I still like my pineapples from time to time)

" Uh, I don't know about exceeding us on a per capita basis. Sure, China and India have increased oil consumption as their burgeoning middle classes have benefited from their economic growth, but look at the population base. "

Right now, 800 out of 1000 people own a car in the United States, in China 8 per 1000 have a car. Some say that auto sales in China will increase by 15 times in the next few years. I did some Googling and found a wide range of estimates. But even if they just doubled, that's A LOT more cars when you consider the population is 1.25 billion, a number that continues to increase minute-by-minute. They already are the world's largest coal and internet users.

Anyway, things to think about!
Margaret

[Audrey]

People will need land and agricultual skills to go with it. However, most of that knowledge is lost. Just a few people have that knowledge currently.




YES!!! I'm in then! :party:
And to think, my friends had the audacity to malign marrying a farmer. :p

:D Just a little humour folks.

[cornopean]

I think that the economic collapse of this country is a planned event by the "global elites" who want a one world government. They want to merge us with Mexica and Canada into the North American Union and replace our currency with the Amero...

Whaaaaa???!?!??!! Is there any reason to think this? What are the facts?

[Mrs Mungo]

Whaaaaa???!?!??!! Is there any reason to think this? What are the facts?

pssst...those are "facts" from Ron Paul.

[chiguirre]

I'm sure we're nearing the end of easily, cheaply produced oil but it's not going to dry up tomorrow, or next year, or even in a decade. There are some known resources that haven't been developed because they weren't economical when a barrel of oil was under $20 less than a decade ago. Now, the Orinoco tar belt in Venezuela and the oil shales in Canada look very inviting when the barrel breaks $100. The heavy tars in Venezuela are equivalent to about 300 years of production. That's just Vzla's production and it's not Saudi, but it is an important producer and it's very accessible to the refineries on the US gulf coast.

[Adrianne]

And then of course, there are all the other nations wanting the oil that is left--including China who has become industrialized at the time when the oil is running out. Imagine the wars over the remaining oil! Of course wars require oil:001_huh:

Tracy

Right now China's uses more coal than oil. National Geographic did an article about China's dependence on coal is similar to our dependence on oil. They reported that the US could make money if shipping coal to China were easy. (but alas it is not easy to transport).

So if we are headed for another dark ages, will we have monks in huts typing computer code to keep our books alive? (sorry could not help it):D

[cornopean]

pssst...those are "facts" from Ron Paul.
I didn't know that Ron Paul believed that the economic collapse of this country is a planned event by the "global elites" who want a one world government.

I knew he had some strange ideas but not this. this seems like westboro baptist stuff.

[Mrs Mungo]

I didn't know that Ron Paul believed that the economic collapse of this country is a planned event by the "global elites" who want a one world government.

I knew he had some strange ideas but not this. this seems like westboro baptist stuff.

eta-don't take my word for it!!
http://blog.ronpaul2008.com/ron_paul_2008/2007/09/message-from--1.html

[cornopean]

eta-don't take my word for it!!
http://blog.ronpaul2008.com/ron_paul_2008/2007/09/message-from--1.html
Well he didn't quite say that the economic collapse of this country is a planned event by the "global elites" who want a one world government.

He does seem to believe that there is a North American Union in the works tho. I guess I haven't heard very many congressmen come out in support of that idea.

[Mrs Mungo]

Well he didn't quite say that the economic collapse of this country is a planned event by the "global elites" who want a one world government.

If you poke around on the web you'l find other stuff from him. Global Elite is definitely one of his favorite catch-phrases.

He does seem to believe that there is a North American Union in the works tho. I guess I haven't heard very many congressmen come out in support of that idea.

No? You don't want to live in the US of Canamerico?

[cornopean]

No? You don't want to live in the US of Canamerico?

:lol:
I definitely support our free trade agreements tho. I like NAFTA and CAFTA. I think it is a scandal that the democrats in congress failed to pass the free trade agreement with Columbia.